Four Alternative Models of Economic Dictatorship

What truly motivated the Soviet dictatorship? What was the dictator’s objective function? What did Stalin and his allies most want to accomplish above all other things?

The Scientific Planner Model

Our first model is the “scientific planner”–a benevolent dictator prepared to turn resource allocation over to planning experts, content to set only general rules and guidelines. The scientific planning model is that heralded in the official Soviet literature. An all-knowing party (the dictator) plays its leading role but leaves the concrete decisions to scientific planners.

The Stationary Bandit Model

The second model is Mancur Olson’s “stationary bandit,” based on Stalin as the exemplar. A stationary bandit is characterized by a long time horizon. No matter how ruthless, despotic, or evil-intentioned, the stationary bandit must maximize growth and development in his own selfish interest. A reasonably efficient, growing economy is necessary to maximize long-run tax revenues, achieve military power, and accumulate resources to reward political allies. The stationary-bandit model suggests that the growth-maximizing policies of the 1930s would have been pursued by any person in Stalin’s shoes. The stationary bandit is, in effect, a development planner.

The Selfish Dictator Model

A third model is the “selfish dictator,” whose primary goal is the accumulation of political power, which is achieved by strategic gift giving and the buying of political loyalty. The selfish dictator is driven not to maximize growth or welfare but to consolidate totalitarian control. When confronted with choices, the selfish dictator allocates resources to maximize political power not to achieve the best economic results. The selfish dictator gains allies and political support by distributing the economic rents extracted from ordinary citizens. Insofar as citizens will not part with their economic resources voluntarily, the dictator must apply force and coercion.

The Referee-Dictator Model

The fourth model is the “referee–dictator,” who mediates among the powerful vested interests that constitute the real sources of power. The referee–dictator model would be expected at a mature phase of dictatorship, when the stationary bandit or power-maximizing dictator is no longer able to dominate, but falls under the influence of industrial and regional elites.

--Paul R. Gregory, The Political Economy of Stalinism: Evidence from the Soviet Secret Archives (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 11-12.